For the past 4 weeks I have written a series of articles for the Dawson News and Advertiser about Population Growth, Climate Change, Energy, Sustainability, and Adaptation. That is a lot of information to cover in 4 columns, so I just touched the surface and listed some reputable websites that one might go to to find out more information and/or become involved. I began my interest in these problems when my son, Brian, began his education at UGA and then continued into this field as his career. The more I learned from him, the more I knew this was an issue that we all must work towards finding solutions. If we are to leave an viable place in which our grandchildren can live, we must do this.
I will post these from the first to the last, although they were published in opposite order in the paper.
Published September 27, 2011
Sustainability, Energy, Adaptation, Population, and Climate Change
While the economy and creating new jobs continues to be the most important issue we face, concerns about sustainability, energy, adaptation, populations, and climate change, are intrinsically tied together and to the economy and jobs. There are mountains of data which speak to these issues, but they are so important that I will try to address each of these briefly. I will depend on the research of many scientists and environmentalists for data to support my thoughts. The reason I think it is important to address these issues now is that Republicans in Congress are doing their best to undermine the progress we have already made addressing these issues and the Republican candidates are actually even rebuffing scientific proof in some of these areas because they think this is what Americans want to hear. Just as Republicans refuse to listen to Americans about the economy, where a poll last week found that 70% of Americans approve of the President’s proposal to tax millionaires and billionaires for their fair share to help our economy, they also refuse to listen to their constituents about these issues. In a Pew Survey in May 2011, 71% of Americans said “This country should do whatever it takes to protect the environment”.
Because this is such a broad issue, I will address it is several columns in the next few weeks. We will address issues with our growing population, keeping our earth sustainable, energy conservation, how climate change will affect these two issues, and how we will try to adapt to some changes that cannot now be stopped. All of these issues affect the whole world, not just America and they affect some parts of the world differently than they will us.
Let’s start with our growing world population and being sustainable. This would not be a problem if there were unlimited land, water, and other natural resources. Unfortunately, with the growing population we will all be sharing the same earth with the same resources. Many are already addressing this issue, but others, because of the perceived influence on the money in their pockets, refuse to accept this as a problem.
But the facts are undeniable. The world population is growing at a rate of 1.3% per year. In 2010, the total population of the world was approximately 6.9 billion. By 2050 the population will have reached about 9.5 billion. By 2080 it will reach 13 billion. This means that my children’s children will face devastating problems in 2050 and their children will be facing even worse in 2080. Do we dare think and plan that far in advance? What if we don’t? And who is responsible for tackling this problem—is it us or do we leave it to our children and grandchildren?
What we have to understand is that all those people have to live on the same earth with the same amount of land on which to live. Those people have to have enough food to survive which means they have to have the land to grow the food or graze the animals, the water for the vegetation and the animals, and clean air to breathe. If we don’t have that, we will have massive starvation and illness.
That is just food. We also need water for all those people to drink in order to live. Throughout the world there have been severe droughts. Texas this year has suffered one of the worst in its history. Drought in the Colorado River basin which provides water for much of the west has been an issue since 1999. And that is just in America. Drastic drought around the world has cut the production of food and has resulted in a spike in food prices worldwide and famine in countries like Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Worldwide, over a billion people living in starvation. (World Famine Organization, Sept. 2011) This is happening now. What will happen when we have doubled the population of the world?
Other natural resources that are necessary to our survival include all those related to energy—oil, natural gas and coal. Because these will take considerable discussion, I will wait on the details for the next column.
So that is sustainability. As former President Clinton said in an interview on Wednesday, September 22, “We have to make room for the 9 billion people (in our future) without burning up the earth.” Next week we’ll talk more about the energy issue as it relates to sustainability, climate change and adaptation.
Published Oct 5, 2011
Our Earth and Our Children
Last week I talked about sustainability and it’s relation to the growing world population. We talked about how we will have to share the food, land, and water with a world population that could go from 6.5 billion now to 9 billion in 2050. The fourth natural resource that will begin to be in short supply because of the growing population is fossil fuels. Oil, gas, and coal are non-renewable natural resources. By definition that means that at some point they will be depleted and because they are non-renewable, they will be gone forever. That means that no matter if we blow the tops off all our beautiful Appalachian Mountains in search for coal, at some point it will be gone and we’ll be left with a degraded mountain range. It means that no matter how many oil rigs we build in our oceans and pipe lines we build through our country, at some point the oil will be totally gone and we will be left with damaged oceans and countryside. No matter how much farmland we devastate with fracking operations to find more natural gas, at some point it will be gone! Many believe that we have already reached the peak of production of these resources, even if we open new venues. When you combine the fact that we may have already reached peak production of these natural resources with the fact that the extra 2.5 billion people on this earth by 2050, we have a problem. And think about how many more cars will be polluting the air. If we don’t find alternative sources of energy, we will run out of what we have and pollution will be worse.
So what we need is a combination of conservation and alternative forms of energy. But again we hear arguments that we can’t afford to do these things—it will hurt our economy. But if we don’t conserve and start using alternative energy, at some point we will not have the resources to heat and cool or homes, bring us light, and carry us and the products we need from place to place. Many say we have already gone beyond being sustainable and that we are currently using 1.5 earths. “Having one planet makes this a rather significant problem. We are using up our resources faster than they can be sustainably replenished, so we are eating into the future. “ (Global Footprint Network)
When we talk about conserving energy we could also talk about what the high use of fossil fuels has done to our environment. Many Republican Presidential candidates prefer to deny the scientific facts that support that our earth is warming faster than it would naturally and that scientists link this to excessive amounts of carbon dioxide. The reason this is important is that it doesn’t only affect the quality of the air we breathe, but also the amount of water we have which affects our land usage and the ability to produce food.
As one of our Tea Party columnists said several weeks ago, plants need carbon dioxide to grow. That is true. In fact, without a natural greenhouse effect the temperature of the earth would be about zero degrees. But high fossil fuel combustion and deforestation are leading to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect. When this happens the earth begins to heat up. Human activity has been increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (mostly carbon dioxide from combustion of coal, oil, and gas). There is no scientific debate on this point. Pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide were about 280 parts per million by volume. The global concentration of CO2 in our atmosphere today far exceeds the natural range over the past 650,000 years . If we continue in our current mode, by the end of the century we can expect to see a 350% increase above pre-industrial concentration. Global changes in temperature extreme include decreases in the number of unusually cold days and nights and increases in the number of unusually warm days and nights. In some areas of the world this has already caused extreme precipitation events despite total precipitation remaining constant or even decreasing. (National Climatic Data Center, US Dept of Commerce) Just in our own country we can point to the extreme droughts in the west and the extreme flooding in the east. The warmer air is also beginning to warm the ocean and melt our ice packs, causing changes in life in the ocean, stronger storms, and a rise in sea level.
If we value the lives of our children and grandchildren we will start taking steps to conserve the use of fossil fuels, develop alternative forms of energy and develop a plan to make our earth sustainable in the century to come. Our earth is a special gift and we must protect it for future generations.
Published Oct 12, 2011
Facing the Facts About our Environment
Last week we talked about fossil fuels and their proven affect on greenhouse gases, which have led to climate change. When you tie the affects of climate change to the population growth of the world, you can see why we will have a problem providing food, water, energy, and clean air by 2050. “You really have to wonder whether a few years from now we’ll look back at the first decade of the 21st century—when food prices spiked, energy prices soared, world population soared, tornados plowed through cities, record setting floods and droughts, populations displaced and governments were threatened by the confluence of it all—and ask ourselves: What were we thinking? How did we not panic when the evidence was so obvious that we’d crossed some growth/climate/natural resource/population redlines all at once?” (Thomas Friedman, NY Times, June 2011)
For instance, a 2010
report from the National Academy of Sciences found that “climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for — and in many cases is already affecting — a broad range of human and natural systems.” A congressionally mandated report in 2009 by the
U.S. Global Change Research Program, which integrates and coordinates federal research, concluded: “Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases.”
What will we see happening to our climate and the earth over the next century?
It will differ from region to region throughout the world.
Some areas will see more rain, others will see less.
There will be extremes in droughts and heavy rain and flooding.
There will even be effects on our health as some areas have longer growing seasons (increase in allergy and respiratory problems).
Because of ocean rise, many populations will be displaced (one/half of the world’s population lives within 60 Kilometers of the shorelines) and will experience health problems from water borne disease.
The list goes on!
You can check this out on the World Health Organizations web site (
http://www.who.int/features/factfiles/climate_change/en/index.html)
So it is too late to stop these changes? In some cases, yes. But the less we do to try to stop the changes, the more drastic the results will be. Even as small a rise in temperature as 2% can cause drastic consequences, and in fact already has in some areas of the world. “If dangerous climate change is to be averted it will require immediate and significant changes to how we fuel our economies in virtually all countries. It will require systemic action across all sectors of the economies of all countries.” (Food Climate Research Network, September 28, 2011) Yet our politician’s inactions are making it more and more likely that humans will suffer greatly from the effects of climate change.
Two examples of this come from our own north Georgia politicians. Amos Amerson, Republican Georgia State Representative, several weeks ago wrote that our enemy is corn produced ethanol. I agree it is not the way to go for energy as it uses up land and water and diverts production of food. He complained that it was the governments fault for providing subsidies and then mentioned the Bakken formation as our answer. He said we should check out the internet for information on this. Apparently the only thing he found on the internet about the Bakken formation was the false e-mail about how much of this oil can be extracted. He might want to look at www.Snopes.com, www.USGS.gov and www.theoildrum.com for facts about this oil supply and how much can actually be extracted. Although it would help reduce dependency on foreign oil, we also need to reduce emissions. Several weeks ago when Rep.Tom Graves (Republican, Georgia) was asked if he knew the name of the government loan program he voted to defund in exchange for giving more money to FEMA for disaster relief. He actually didn’t know the name of the bill or the fact that it provided initiatives for green jobs including fuel efficient cars and solar energy and has created over 40,000 jobs in a year. It is politicians like these that are blocking our nations’ ability to tackle the problems associated with climate change. When it comes to energy issues, it seems the politician’s main purpose is to make sure that big oil continues to get its government subsidies while providing no funding for the start up businesses that are doing research and creating alternative energy sources for our future.
So the effects of global warming have already started, but the effects could be minimized by actions that we take now for our earth and our children in the future. In the next article I will talk about what green energy jobs could do for our future and about the new field of “adaptation” which has sprung up because of the climate change effects that are already taking place.
Publish Date Oct 19 2011
Climate Change, Jobs, and Adaptation
In the last three columns, I have talked about issues that we will all face in the coming years and that our children and grandchildren will grabble with after we are gone. But through the resilience, determination, and innovation that has always been part of the American way we can solve these problems. We can make sure that our air is clean, that there is plenty of land and water on which to live and grow food, we can make sure our beautiful mountain ranges remain intact and our country sides continue to give us the joy of the Sunday afternoon ride. We can make sure we have plenty of power to heat and light our homes and run our cars and that we do all what we can to protect our fellow man and the animals that inhabit our planet. I have talked about the facts and the issues, so you have a basis for understanding why we have these problems.
On a more practical note, let’s talk about what jobs can be created by using our American ingenuity to come up with ideas that will save our earth for future generations. Some say that “green jobs” are not the answer. I liken that to what must have happened at the turn of the century when cars replaced the horse and buggy. Can you imagine the outburst from people on how bad this would be for the economy? What would happen to the carriage maker and the horse breeders? How would they ever survive? The same thing is happening now. Oil, coal, and natural gas companies talk a good game in their ads that they are searching for alternative energy, but it is small business that is taking the reins in that field. According to a recent Brookings Institution analysis, the growing clean technology section of our economy already employs 2.7 million workers—more than are employed in the fossil fuel industries. According to figures released by the Solar Foundation, there are now 100,237 jobs in the American solar industry. The Foundation found that between August of 2010 and August of 2011, the solar industry grew by 6.8%, far outpacing the 0.7 growth in the US economy. As the cost of these technologies continues to drop, solar is becoming increasingly competitive with nuclear and fossil resources. Much of this activity was spurred by a federal incentive package that made it easier to finance solar projects.
In addition to jobs being created, Americans are able to save money because of various green initiatives. According to Thinkprogress.org, as a result of investments under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act the number of homes weatherized because of the act went up by 1000 percent. These weatherization services have saved families an average of more than $400 a year in energy costs. In addition to savings, residential and power plant emissions have been greatly reduced and 14,800 jobs have been created. Back in the 60’s the computer industry got this same boost/incentive from the federal government and of course we see what happened there. It is time for us to put our money and energy into the greening of America.
Some of the adverse affect of climate change have already begun to affect our world. Many cities have already begun to address these problems. A recent article in USA today stated that major cities are at the forefront of an emerging trend, adaptation. “It’s a new field,” says Brian Holland, Director of Climate Programs at ICLEI—Local Governments for Sustainability USA. In many cities around the country, flooding is going to be an issue because of higher tides brought on by climate change. In a study done by ICLEI in San Diego, the expected rise in sea levels mean that Chula Vista is requiring all new waterfront buildings to have higher foundations and Coronado Public Works is assessing their needs. San Francisco is building devices to prevent salty bay water from over-flowing into the city storm-water and waste water system. In Chicago they are replacing impervious surfaces with permeable materials to allow rain to seep into the ground. In Norfolk, Virginia they have been designing dam structures to deal with the 14.5 inch rise in sea level that has happened over the past 80 years, and in New York City they have a 20-year plan for green infrastructure to help manage storm-water runoff from increasingly powerful storms. As Holland says, “we are already seeing the consequences of climate change and those will only intensify.” Thankfully, an increasing number of cities have begun vulnerability assessments and as noted above have begun to take steps to counter these adverse effects.
There are mountains of valuable information about the issues I discussed in the last 4 columns. I highlighted many reputable websites and journals to look at for reliable information. Although we can adapt to some of the changes already taking place we cannot allow the things that are causing these changes to go unfettered. If we do, our grandchildren may not have the joy of living on this beautiful planet.
